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Human Molecular Genetics Advance Access originally published online on March 6, 2007
Human Molecular Genetics 2007 16(9):1051-1057; doi:10.1093/hmg/ddm050
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© The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Counting potentially functional variants in BRCA1, BRCA2 and ATM predicts breast cancer susceptibility

Nichola Johnson1,{dagger}, Olivia Fletcher1,{dagger}, Claire Palles1, Matthew Rudd2, Emily Webb2, Gabrielle Sellick2, Isabel dos Santos Silva4, Valerie McCormack4, Lorna Gibson4, Agnes Fraser4, Angela Leonard4, Clare Gilham3, Sean V. Tavtigian5, Alan Ashworth1, Richard Houlston2 and Julian Peto3,4,*

1 The Breakthrough Breast Cancer Research Centre, Institute of Cancer Research, 237 Fulham Road, London, SW3 6JB, UK, 2 Section of Cancer Genetics, 3 Cancer Research UK Epidemiology & Genetics Unit, Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton, Surrey, SM2 5NG, UK, 4 Non Communicable Disease Epidemiology Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK and 5 Genetic Susceptibility Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert-Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08, France

* To whom correspondence should be addressed at: Non Communicable Disease Epidemiology Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Tel: +1 02079272455; Fax: +1 02075806897; Email: julian.peto{at}lshtm.ac.uk

Received January 8, 2007; Revised February 20, 2007; Accepted February 28, 2007

Rare inactivating mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, TP53 and CHEK2 confer relative risks for breast cancer between about 2 and more than 10, but more common variants in these genes are generally considered of little or no clinical significance. Under the polygenic model for breast cancer carriers of multiple low-penetrance alleles are at high risk, but few such alleles have been reliably identified. We analysed 1037 potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate cancer genes in 473 women with two primary breast cancers and 2463 controls. Twenty-five of these SNPs were in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, TP53 and CHEK2. Among the 1037 SNPs there were a few significant findings, but hardly more than would be expected in this large experiment. There was, however, a significant trend in risk with increasing numbers of variant alleles for the 25 SNPs in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, TP53 and CHEK2 (Ptrend = 0.005). For the 21 of these with minor allele frequency <10% this trend was highly significant (Ptrend = 0.00004, odds ratio for 3 or more SNPs = 2.90, 95% CI 1.69–4.97). The individual effects of most of these risk alleles were undetectably small even in this well powered study, but the risk conferred by multiple variants is readily detectable and makes a substantial contribution to susceptibility. A risk score incorporating a suitably weighted sum of all potentially functional variants in these and a few other candidate genes may provide clinically useful identification of women at high genetic risk.


{dagger} The authors wish it to be known that, in their opinion, the first two authors should be regarded as joint First Authors.


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